Business Planning and Evaluation · Chapter 1 · 1.1.2

What lies beneath the number?

The concept of business value and its five layers – from cash flows to intangible capital.

1 · CoreAccountant
2 · RiskRisk analyst
3 · PerceptionMarket commentator
4 · StrategicStrategist
5 · IntangibleData engineer

Rolandas Rakštys · Lecturer · Vytautas Magnus University, Agriculture Academy · Faculty of Bioeconomy Development, Department of Business and Rural Development · [email protected] · ORCID 0000-0003-0299-9930

Chapter 1 “Foundations of Business Value”, section 1.1.2 · English translation of v0.16.5 (2026-10-15) · set v1.0.2 · 15 slides, ≈ 31 min

Rakštys, R. (2026). Chapter 1. Foundations of Business Value (English translation of v0.16.5, 2026-10-15). Verslo planavimas ir vertinimas [Business planning and evaluation]. Vytautas Magnus University, Agriculture Academy. https://rakstys.eu/studijos/verslo-planavimas-ir-vertinimas/en/skyriai/ch01/ · CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Question

Why are two companies with identical cash flows valued differently?

V = ?
Company A
cash flows CF1…CF5
V = ?
Company B
the same CF1…CF5
Stranger still: why are companies with negative cash flows sometimes valued in the billions?
The problem of definition

There is no single universal definition

Financial economicscash flows and risk
Strategic managementcompetitive advantage and resources
Behavioural financeexpectations and perception

Business value – the risk-adjusted present value, at a given date t, of the future economic benefits (cash flows above all) that a company is able to generate for its capital providers, taking into account:

(i) → layer 1expected cash flows
(ii) → layer 2the risk and uncertainty attaching to them
(iii) → layer 4the strategic operating context that shapes those flows and that risk
(iv) → layer 5the intangible resources that determine the long-run potential

Layer 3? Perception is not in the definition – it appears when we ask why market price deviates from value.

Discounted cash flow (DCF) logic

The basic expression of value

V0 = Σnt=1CFt(1 + r)t + TVn(1 + r)n
V0value at the valuation dateCFtexpected free cash flowrdiscount rateTVnterminal valuenforecast years
1 · Core the formula describes only the core layer
Where do the cash flows come from?
Why do different valuers apply different discount rates?
Why may market price differ drastically from calculated value?

You will calculate it in the trainer for section 1.2 – formula (1.1).

Essential distinctions

Four notions, three distinctions

Value ≠ price

Price – the actual outcome of a transaction or a market quotation; value – an estimate on a basis of value and assumptions (Damodaran, 2012).

IFRS 13: fair value – an exit price (IFRS Foundation, 2013). International Valuation Standards (IVS): market value – the estimated amount of an exchange (IVSC, 2022).

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”

Graham’s lesson, as quoted by Buffett (Buffett, 2009)

Value ≠ performance

Performance – a set of financial and non-financial indicators already achieved, oriented to a shorter horizon: revenue, return on assets, market share.

Value – the present expression of the entire future economic potential.

The Balanced Scorecard emerged because financial indicators alone can mislead (Kaplan & Norton, 1992).

Value ≠ profitability

Profitability – the ratio of an accounting result to a base (revenue, assets, equity). A profitable company may destroy value if its return falls short of the cost of capital.

EVA = NOPAT − (IC × WACC)

economic value added (EVA); net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT); invested capital (IC); weighted average cost of capital (WACC)

Click a card, then the column it belongs to.

The ontological approach

Questions the formula does not cover

Where do the cash flows come from?
They are generated by strategic decisions, positioning, capabilities 4
Why are two companies with identical cash flows valued differently?
Their risk profiles, growth prospects and intangible capital differ 245
Why does market price deviate from fundamental value?
Perception is at work: expectations, narratives, information asymmetry 3
Why are companies with negative cash flows sometimes valued in the billions?
The value lies in real options, data, network effects 45

The ontological approach asks what exists in the value system and what its fundamental components are.

Figure 1.1 · ontological decomposition

Five layers

5 · Intangible layerBrand, Data, IP, Human capital 4 · Strategic layerCompetitive advantage, Real options, Dynamic capabilities 3 · Perception layerExpectations, Sentiment, Information asymmetry, Narratives 2 · Risk layerDiscount rate, Systematic risk, Uncertainty 1 · CoreCash flows, Assets, Capital structure feedback
objectswhat exists
attributeswhat properties
functionwhat role they play in the value system

Click a layer

You will see what exists in it.

Groth et al., 1996; Walters, 1997; Lepak et al., 2007; Crouzet et al., 2022

Layer 1
Cash flows, assets and capital structure

The core

Cash flows

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) and to equity (FCFE) – the principal “carrier” of value under the income approach.

Tangible assets

Real estate, equipment, inventory, financial assets. The asset-based approach deducts liabilities and establishes a minimum (liquidation) value.

Capital structure

The mix of debt and equity determines the WACC. Modigliani and Miller (1958): irrelevant under ideal conditions; in practice – the tax shield, bankruptcy costs, agency conflicts.

The core is the quantitative base on which all the other layers are built. Its objects are, in principle, observable and measurable with the instruments of accounting and financial analysis.

Layer 2
Uncertainty and discounting

Risk

Systematic risk

Market risk that cannot be diversified away, measured by the beta coefficient in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM; Sharpe, 1964).

Specific risk

Factors particular to the individual company: technological, regulatory and operating risk.

Discount rate

Restates future cash flows to present value: the time value of money and a risk premium.

Risk

Probabilities are known or can be reasonably assessed – it is possible to calculate.

Uncertainty

The structure of probabilities is unknown or unstable – one can only reason through scenarios.

Frank Knight’s distinction (Knight, 1921; Alfaro et al., 2024). Standard DCF and CAPM models assume risk.

This is where valuation first becomes distinctly subjective: the choice of discount rate involves a substantial element of expert judgement.

Layer 3
Expectations, information and sentiment

Perception

expectationsinformation asymmetrymarket sentimentnarratives (Shiller, 2017)forecast dispersion
1The seller knows the quality of the asset, the buyer does not.
2The buyer rationally offers a lower price, anticipating lower quality.
3High-quality sellers withdraw from the market.
4Average quality falls – the spiral may end in market collapse.

George Akerlof’s “lemons” model – adverse selection (Akerlof, 1970)

In valuation practice: liquidity discounts, wider bid-ask spreads and an information risk premium for insufficient transparency.

Bond marketgreater forecast dispersion → wider credit spreads (Güntay & Hackbarth, 2010)
Equity marketgreater dispersion → systematically lower future returns – the dispersion anomaly (Diether et al., 2002)
Layer 4
Competitive advantage and positioning

The strategic layer

Competitive advantage

Returns above the cost of capital through entry barriers, switching costs, network effects, proprietary resources (Porter, 1985; Barney, 1991).

Strategic positioning

The place in the value chain: differentiation, cost leadership, focus on a niche.

Real options

The right, but not the obligation, to expand, contract, defer or abandon investments; a standard DCF undervalues flexibility (Phelan, 1997).

Dynamic capabilities

Sensing opportunities, seizing them and reconfiguring the resource base (Teece, 2007).

Equity may be read as a call option on the company’s assets with an exercise price equal to the value of its debt (Merton, 1974; for detail see Chapter 14).

Levelhigher margins or volumes
Growthan expansion of future opportunities
Sustainabilityrents retained for longer
Riskaltered volatility
Optionstrategic flexibility
→ value

Five channels (Walters, 1997; Kim, 2004)

Strategic variables may determine value even where their short-term accounting effect is weak.

Layer 5
Data, brand and human capital

The intangible layer

Intellectual property

patents, copyrights, trade secrets (IP)

Brand equity

willingness to pay a premium for a known brand

Human capital

knowledge, skills, experience (Gamerschlag, 2013)

Data assets

exclusivity, quality, rights (Hughes-Cromwick & Coronado, 2019; Corrado et al., 2022)often fails the criteria

Organisational capital

routines, processes, culture, management systemsoften fails the criteria

Customer capital

retention rate, customer lifetime value (CLV), switching costs

IAS 38: only identifiable and reliably measurable assets go on the balance sheet.

In the digital economy, selling and marketing expenditure often accounts for 20 % or more of revenue – this is investment in customer capital. That is why subscription and SaaS (software as a service) business models are valued at higher multiples.

92 %

Intangible assets accounted for 92 % of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 at the end of 2025 (2020–2025: about 90 %). A single provider’s estimate (Ocean Tomo, 2025).

Interaction of the layers

Not boxes but a system

5 · Intangible 4 · Strategic 3 · Perception 2 · Risk 1 · Core
Disruption in any layer transmits through the whole system – click a layer

Examples from the chapter: a technological shock, a shift in market mood, a capital structure crisis.

Xt = ( CFetAtItKtStBtRt) state vector: expected cash flows, tangible assets, intangible capital, capital structure, strategic position, perceptual state, risk parameters – formula (1.5) in section 1.2
Formal synthesis

Value is an organised relation

Vbusinesst = Ω(Vfundamentalt, Vmarkett, St, It, Φt)
Value is path-dependent. The same current profits may signify different values if they were produced along different trajectories.
Management is part of valuation. Managers’ decisions form part of the value transition mechanism rather than being an external factor.
Market signals feed back into fundamentals. Financing conditions, takeover threats and reputation alter strategic actions and, through them, cash flows (Walters, 1997; Kim, 2004).

The answer to the opening question: two companies with identical cash flows differ in the other layers – risk, perception, strategy, intangible capital.

APA 7 · works cited in section 1.1.2

References

Akerlof, G. A. (1970). The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84(3), 488–500. https://doi.org/10.2307/1879431

Alfaro, I., Bloom, N., & Lin, X. (2024). The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier. Journal of Political Economy, 132(2), 577–615. https://doi.org/10.1086/726230

Barney, J. (1991). Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage. Journal of Management, 17(1), 99–120. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639101700108

Buffett, W. E. (2009). Chairman's letter. In Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2008 annual report. Berkshire Hathaway. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf

Corrado, C., Haskel, J., Iommi, M., & Jona-Lasinio, C. (2022). Measuring data as an asset: Framework, methods and preliminary estimates (OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 1731). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/b840fb01-en

Crouzet, N., Eberly, J. C., Eisfeldt, A. L., & Papanikolaou, D. (2022). The Economics of Intangible Capital. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 36(3), 29–52. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.3.29

Damodaran, A. (2012). Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset (3rd ed.). Wiley.

Diether, K. B., Malloy, C. J., & Scherbina, A. (2002). Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2113–2141. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00490

Gamerschlag, R. (2013). Value Relevance of Human Capital Information. Journal of Intellectual Capital, 14(2), 325–345. https://doi.org/10.1108/14691931311323913

Groth, J., Byers, S., & Bogert, J. (1996). Capital, Economic Returns and the Creation of Value. Management Decision, 34(6), 21–30. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251749610121452

Güntay, L., & Hackbarth, D. (2010). Corporate bond credit spreads and forecast dispersion. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(10), 2328–2345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.02.019

Hughes-Cromwick, E., & Coronado, J. (2019). The Value of US Government Data to US Business Decisions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(1), 131–146. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.1.131

IFRS Foundation. (2013). IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement. https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/list-of-standards/ifrs-13-fair-value-measurement/

International Valuation Standards Council [IVSC]. (2022). International Valuation Standards. IVSC.

Kaplan, R. S., & Norton, D. P. (1992). The Balanced Scorecard – Measures That Drive Performance. Harvard Business Review, 70(1), 71–79.

Kim, K. (2004). Strategic Planning for Value-Based Management. Management Decision, 42(8), 938–948. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251740410555434

Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Houghton Mifflin.

Lepak, D. P., Smith, K. G., & Taylor, M. S. (2007). Value Creation and Value Capture: A Multilevel Perspective. Academy of Management Review, 32(1), 180–194. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2007.23464011

Merton, R. C. (1974). On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates. The Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449–470. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978814

Modigliani, F., & Miller, M. H. (1958). The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment. The American Economic Review, 48(3), 261–297.

Ocean Tomo. (2025). Intangible Asset Market Value Study. Ocean Tomo, a part of J.S. Held. https://www.oceantomo.com/intangible-asset-market-value-study

Phelan, S. E. (1997). Exposing the Illusion of Confidence in Financial Analysis. Management Decision, 35(2), 163–168. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251749710160322

Porter, M. E. (1985). Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. Free Press.

Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442. https://doi.org/10.2307/2977928

Shiller, R. J. (2017). Narrative Economics. American Economic Review, 107(4), 967–1004. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.107.4.967

Teece, D. J. (2007). Explicating Dynamic Capabilities. Strategic Management Journal, 28(13), 1319–1350. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.640

Walters, D. (1997). Developing and Implementing Value-Based Strategy. Management Decision, 35(10), 709–720. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251749710192020

Rakštys, R. (2026). Chapter 1. Foundations of Business Value (English translation of v0.16.5, 2026-10-15). Verslo planavimas ir vertinimas [Business planning and evaluation]. Vytautas Magnus University, Agriculture Academy. https://rakstys.eu/studijos/verslo-planavimas-ir-vertinimas/en/skyriai/ch01/ · CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

These slides are based on the textbook Verslo planavimas ir vertinimas [Business Planning and Evaluation]. The text was translated, structured and visually laid out with the help of artificial intelligence tools (Claude), following the protocol for working with AI and the verification procedures set by the author.

→ or space – next · ← – back · N – notes · S – storyboard · F – full screen
Turn your phone to landscape The slides are laid out for a wide screen: in landscape they fill the whole phone screen.